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socks and cat

Lethargic recovery on the way

Funny how I never cared about the economy until I owned a business. Now I hang on every word, especially when they use words like "recovery" and "recession end."

Most Economists See Recession End in 09



The thing I don't like in this article is that it doesn't say anything. People "predicting" the recession will end. Wishful thinking, and nice headline buzz, but nothing to show that it is, or has ended. It's hype. Words like "should" and "believe" are easily overlooked if you want to read a different message, but it's all cast in jell-o here.
Given that economists "predictions" are based on complex mathematical models that use past information to develop the most likely future trends, it does hold quite a bit of weight. Granted, no matter how complex the models are they cannot include all the variables that impact the actual economy but they are often good approximations.

To say that it is wishful thinking is to say that a physicists calculations are wishful thinking because they are based on a "belief" (based on quantum mechanics, we can never know the exact location of an atom and instead predict the most likely movement).
I have to point out that these are the same specialists who didn't see this crash coming, so maybe their predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.

Of course I have always thought of economics as hokum and black magic, so I may be prejudiced.